Hello, In today’s edition is a bit different as we experiment with a new format and pivot towards a more human story approach to policies. This week, it is about hyperinflation which is a destructive phenomenon but covered only sparingly in the news.

But first, the back-pedalling of the Starmer government on cuts for winter allowance for the retirees. Who in their right mind thought that was a winning political move ? Trump has also been back-pedaling on his tariffs.

As usual, there is a news recap at the end of all policy news for the past week.

We’ve also started introducing adverts in the newsletter. If you find them interesting, please check them out. It helps support this newsletter and its growth. Lastly, feel free to share this newsletter if you find it of value to you.

And finally, Welcome to our new subscribers 🙂 

Prices

📈 The Price Tag Keeps Changing

Hyperinflation and Human Cost

In 2008, Zimbabwe went through one of the worst hyperinflation periods in recent human history. The official inflation rate for 2008 for the country, according to the World Bank, stands at 231 million percent. Inflation was so high that prices were increasing every 24.7 hours. Such was the pace that Rudo recalled that a price of bread was Z$2 in the morning and by the evening, it had more than doubled to Z$5. 'We get paid and rush to the shop immediately' he said [1].

💥 What is hyperinflation

Since the year 2000, Zimbabwe is currently experiencing its second period of hyperinflation. According to the latest IMF Global Outlook report, 3 countries are currently suffering from hyperinflation: Venezuela, Sudan and South Sudan. Economists, technically, describe a country from suffering hyperinflation when the inflation rate exceeds 50%. Humanly speaking, though, it is not just about prices; it is a collapse of trust in the economy and the country’s currency.  Last year, Argentina came out of its longest period of hyperinflation which lasted 5 straight years. A café owner Bueno Aires, in 2023, recalled “We’ve stopped printing menu. Prices change too fast" [2].  Any economic calamity changes the lives of people drastically. In this case, it is a race against time that is lost at the outset. One can only limit the damage. Just like many human diseases, often, the policies meant to make people’s lives better tend to have the total opposite effect. Hyperinflation does not happen suddenly but builds up over time; and once it hits, it spirals up uncontrollably.

The early 1900’s are filled with examples of hyperinflation. In 1920 Germany, having lost World War 1, was forced by the Treaty of Versailles to pay enormous amounts of reparations equivalent to roughly USD 33 Billion. The idea being that enormous debt would stop the country from rearming and starting another war again. This idea though proved disastrous. Unable to service its debt, the German authorities began printing money to repay the debt. Not knowing its consequences, they increased the rate of printing. The inevitable result being that the currency started losing value rapidly fuelling inflation.

📜 Historical Examples

Venezuela is another country which has regularly experienced hyperinflation since the 2000s. The economy, very dependent on resource extraction, tends to go through cyclical trends based on commodity prices. The Venezuelan government spent lavishly during periods of high commodity prices only to run huge deficits when prices fell. Consequently, government debt went up and the central bank began printing money excessively. The amount of money in circulation grew by 20-30% each month. Price controls, subsidies and currency controls did not help in the long term as they exacerbated the inevitable. The economic consequences were dire. The economy contracted over 50% in the space of 3 years [3].

Argentina’s recent episode of hyperinflation has similar roots. Financial mismanagement, unfinanced government deficits and unsustainable debt have led to economic collapse. The government, while trying to reduce its deficit, exacerbated the issue by printing money which inevitably led to prices skyrocketing. The human cost has been huge for the country. Poverty has increased rapidly reaching more than 40% of the population. As unemployment increased, wages fell by more than 20%; further worsening the situation for even those with a job.

While in many cases, hyperinflation came from mismanagement, often it is sine qua non with war periods. In war, necessities such as food become a rarity leading to huge increases in prices. Reporting on prices during those times become irrelevant as people fight for their lives. While there are estimates and some records, they probably do not capture the full picture of the situation people endure.

👥 How people cope?

While policymakers sift through the data, consumers tend to feel the pain of hyperinflation immediately. During times of hyperinflation, time feels very short. Every unit of money loses value as the hour passes. What could have been bought yesterday cannot be bought today with the same amount of money. It’s a struggle against time.

The consequences for people are real though. Often, people try to emigrate at high human costs. It is estimated that 7.9 million Venezuelans have migrated to other countries; not always welcomed and having to restart their lives with very little resources. [4] In the intervening years, many have died because of fires or forced disappearances. Other times, they end up being trafficked, working in dire conditions for very low wages.

In many cases, a black market emerges whereby people try to get US Dollars. Often, this leads to corruption opportunities for people in power. People resort to informal channels to preserve value: they save in foreign currencies when possible, buy durable goods as stores of value, or trade in essentials like rice or fuel. Families send money through remittances from relatives abroad—a lifeline in countries like Lebanon and Venezuela. [5] In Zimbabwe, shoppers would often spend their salaries within hours of being paid, to avoid seeing their earnings become worthless by sunset. [6]

In Argentina, consumers have resorted to checking prices multiple times a day, with many retailers updating them in real time via WhatsApp. [7] Price changes have become so frequent that restaurants handwrite menu prices daily. [2]

In Venezuela and Zimbabwe, the use of foreign currencies such as the US dollar became widespread before governments officially dollarised. [8] In addition, barter systems re-emerged, with people trading cooking oil for rice, or transport for vegetables. [9]

Community-led initiatives, such as soup kitchens in Argentina or mobile clinics in Sudan, helped fill the gaps left by faltering state services. Radio shows and local WhatsApp groups became vital communication channels for sharing information on prices and available goods. [10]

It is a reorganisation of life around scarcity, where every decision is calculated in survival terms. What was once considered planning for the future becomes a question of making it through the day. Scarcity dictates the rhythm of life. Yet even in this precariousness, people invent, adapt, and extend invisible threads of support.

Despite the hardships, a quiet resilience emerges. But the scars of hyperinflation—the distrust, the despair, the everyday compromises—linger long after the prices stabilise. And for many, the hope is not about thriving but simply returning to a time when the currency in their pockets meant something more than a countdown clock.

⚠️ Policy Failures & limitations

A third of cases of hyperinflation since the 1900s are due to wars. A third is due to state collapse or decolonization - a one off event - and the last third is due to neither of those two and most likely due to economic mismanagement. In all three cases, policy limitations are evident and failure to understand economic phenomena plays a huge role in mismanagement. The examples of Venezuela and Zimbabwe come to mind.

While the technical definition of hyperinflation relies on aggregate-level price data, the lived experience of inflation can be far more severe for basic necessities. Essential goods such as eggs, bread, fuel, or baby formula may see triple-digit price surges even when overall inflation rates remain lower. A widely reported example was the sharp increase in egg prices in the United States during 2022–2023 due to avian flu and supply chain disruptions. Yet, because eggs carry a relatively small weight in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the severity of the increase was largely masked in the headline figure. [11]

Inflation indices, by their nature, are statistical abstractions. They average out price changes across a broad basket of goods and services. This method can obscure dramatic inflation in key items that are crucial to everyday life, especially for low-income households. Moreover, the frequency of data updates—often monthly or quarterly—can delay recognition of emerging trends.

Central banks often separate inflation into categories such as core inflation, which excludes food and energy. While this is useful for long-term policy targeting, it can create a disconnect between official assessments and the public's lived reality. People may feel inflation is far worse than reported, fueling public discontent and mistrust in institutions. [12]

The challenge is especially acute in developing countries, where statistical systems may lack the resources for granular and timely data collection. Inflation figures may be published with delays of several weeks, sometimes months. According to the World Bank, these data lags can result in delayed or poorly calibrated policy responses, exacerbating the economic and social impact. [13] Efforts by institutions such as the IMF and African Development Bank have focused on improving real-time price monitoring, but much work remains.

Recent advances—such as using crowdsourced mobile data, online price scraping, and satellite-based market surveillance—offer promising tools for narrowing the gap. Yet, integrating these innovations into policymaking requires institutional capacity, technical skills, and sustained political will.

🔧 What Can Be Done?

There are no perfect playbooks. But there are lessons. Some of them have been tried. Others need scale. And most require courage.

1. Digital Tools for Real-Time Inflation Tracking

In a world where prices can change daily, slow-moving inflation reports are like checking the rear-view mirror in a race. Some countries have started experimenting with better instruments. In Kenya and Rwanda, mobile apps allow consumers to report the price of goods in real time—providing early signals of brewing inflation. Platforms like PRICEStats have used crowd-sourced and online retail data to track inflation more frequently than official statistics allow.

Even satellite imagery and AI models are being used to anticipate price shocks by monitoring things like harvests, market foot traffic, or shipping bottlenecks—trying to detect cracks in supply before they widen.

2. Strengthen Central Banks and Statistical Agencies

None of this works without trust. And trust is not just about people believing in numbers, but believing that the people producing those numbers are free to tell the truth.

Central banks need legal independence—not the kind that exists on paper but the kind that survives political change. Statistical offices need funding, autonomy, and the mandate to tell uncomfortable truths. Countries must also pair macroeconomic policies with social protection: cash transfers, targeted subsidies, or food aid to shield the most vulnerable from the worst spikes.

3. Enhance Regional Cooperation

Inflation doesn’t respect borders, and neither should good policy. African countries, for example, could pool technical expertise to build regional inflation observatories, as proposed by UNECA. These would help monitor price movements across borders, especially for landlocked countries that rely heavily on imports. Shared data systems, regional alerts, and coordinated responses could help smaller economies act faster and better.

🧭 Conclusion

Hyperinflation is more than an economic term. It’s the lived experience of waking up poorer every day, despite working just as hard—if not harder. It’s the story of lost childhoods, ruined pensions, and shopkeepers with blank price tags. It’s also a story of resilience. People adapt. They organise informal food markets, invent new currencies, or flee in search of dignity. Yet no one should have to. The lesson is clear: inflation is not just about percentages—it’s about people. And if policy cannot keep up with daily life, then it's not good policy at all.

📚 References

1. The Guardian, “Zimbabwe’s inflation rate hits 231m%”, July 22, 2008.

2. New York Times, “In Argentina, Soaring Prices Change Everything”, October 22, 2023.

3. UNHCR, “Venezuelan Refugee and Migrant Crisis”, 2023.

4. UNHCR Regional Interagency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela, 2023.

5. BBC News, “Venezuela crisis: How the crisis changed lives”, 2019.

6. BBC News, “Zimbabwe's currency collapse: The daily struggle to buy bread”, 2019.

7. Reuters, “In Argentina, inflation has people checking prices constantly”, 2024.

8. Wikipedia, “Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe”

9. NPR, “In Venezuela, bartering has become the new norm”, 2018.

10. Al Jazeera, “Hyperinflation and survival: Stories from Sudan and Lebanon”, 2023.

11. CNBC, "Egg prices soared 70% in 2022. Here's why," Jan 2023.

12. IMF, "How People Experience Inflation: A Global Perspective," Working Paper, 2022.

13. World Bank, "Measuring the Real Impact of Inflation Delays in Developing Economies," 2021.

Land Reform

🏞️ The Quiet Land Reform

Namibia is quietly pushing through a bill to ban foreign land ownership for the second time this year. The move targets long-standing inequalities in land distribution. Over 70% of commercial farmland remains in the hands of a small, mostly white and foreign elite—an uncomfortable legacy of colonialism and apartheid. Past reform efforts were timid, and became entangled in bureaucracy and complexity of political lobbies.

While the bill is direct in its approach towards banning foreign ownership, it is not, however, an expropriation. On one hand, the policy responds to real pressure: rising food insecurity, land speculation, and youth unemployment and on the other hand it aligns with a broader trend we’re seeing—governments reclaiming control over strategic assets.

The country’s economy is not shielded from backlash though.Agriculture and tourism, which make up a big portion of the economy, rely heavily on foreign investment. Will investors walk? Will there be loopholes? Answers to those questions will become clear once more details about the bills are released.

What’s more, enforcement will be messy. Dual citizenship, nominee companies, and legal challenges under bilateral treaties could all complicate rollout.Still, if Namibia gets it right, it could become a blueprint. A way to rebalance ownership without the chaos of Zimbabwe’s land seizures or South Africa’s endless debates. If it stumbles, it’ll be another lesson in how not to do reform.

Number

🔢 This Week’s Number

 1.6 Billion

• Ethiopia announced that its import substitution strategy saved the country $1.6 billion over the past year. By boosting domestic manufacturing in textiles, leather, and agro-processing, the government reduced reliance on foreign goods and conserved foreign exchange reserves—critical amid currency shortages and inflation.

  The policy aligns with Ethiopia’s ten-year development plan, which emphasizes industrialization and value addition. Authorities have credited the savings to targeted incentives, protective tariffs, and aggressive promotion of local sourcing.

• If the gains hold, Ethiopia could accelerate its ambitions to become a regional manufacturing hub. But sustaining momentum will require solving infrastructure gaps, managing inflation, and improving investor confidence amid ongoing political and security tensions.

News

📰 Policy News

🇬🇳 Guinea's Prime Minister Announces December Elections
Guinea’s transitional government announced presidential elections for December 2025, marking a return to civilian rule after the 2021 military coup. The decision follows regional and international pressure to restore democracy.

🇬🇭 Ghana’s New Gas Plant to Save $500m Annually
Ghana inaugurated its second gas processing plant, expected to save nearly $500 million in annual fuel imports and create over 1,000 jobs. It represents a major step toward energy self-sufficiency.

🇳🇬 Nigeria Overhauls Electricity Distribution Companies
President Tinubu’s administration announced plans to restructure Nigeria’s power distribution companies (Discos), aiming to improve efficiency and tackle persistent blackouts. The move follows years of underperformance in the sector.

🇸🇩 Sudan Cuts Diplomatic Ties with UAE Amid Civil War
Sudan’s transitional government severed ties with the UAE, accusing it of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia in the ongoing conflict. The move marks a significant geopolitical realignment amid Sudan’s failure to get the UAE indicted for genocide.

🇲🇷 Mauritania Signs New Agreement with IMF
Mauritania and the IMF reached a new reform and sustainability agreement to boost public finance and inclusive growth. It follows steady macroeconomic improvements and debt restructuring efforts.

🇳🇬 Ghana's Mahama Calls for African Debt Reform Ahead of G20
Former President John Mahama urged a unified African position on debt restructuring and financial reform ahead of the 2025 G20 Summit. He cited Ghana’s own experience with IMF negotiations as a lesson.

🇻🇳 Vietnam Pushes Ahead with Affordable Housing Reforms
Vietnam’s government acknowledged an ongoing mismatch in affordable housing supply and demand. It introduced new incentives for developers, including land access and interest subsidies, to encourage mid- and low-income housing construction.

🇯🇵 Japan Releases Monetary Policy Summary Highlighting Caution on VAT Cuts
Japan’s central bank released a summary of its latest policy meeting, showing resistance to VAT cuts despite upcoming elections. Policymakers prioritized fiscal stability amid rising social spending.

🇸🇱 Over 1,000 workers were laid off in Sierra Leone after the country’s largest diamond mining company halted operations following protracted months of protests a breakdown in negotiations regarding the conditions in which workers operated in.