Hello, In today’s edition, it is all about tariffs and moral dilemmas. The past week’s events pose real policy questions for which the answers are not yet clear. It is unclear how central banks can respond. Retaliatory actions are also limited for most countries and the consequences are real.

• 💔 Economic Breakup

• 🏘️ Urban Unlock

• 📰 News Recap

Economics

💔 Economic Breakup

• The End ?

  This week’s policy news has been dominated by Trump’s so called “Liberation Day”. It has been labelled as the end of an era by the British and Canadian Prime Ministers. The key question for African countries has been the future of the African Growth & Opportunity Act (AGOA) passed by the US congress in 2000. This Act has allowed African countries to export more than 1,800 products to the US market duty-free; de facto giving them an edge over other exports. Is it the end of US-Africa economic cooperation ? While in the immediate aftermath of the announcements, the answer would seem a yes. A deeper look reveals a more nuanced no. The reasons are stated below. Before that though, African countries need to learn to negotiate 🤝 (no kidding).

  All countries have ben hit with a 10% tariff. Below are those which have had higher tariff rates imposed on them.

• Disorderly response

  African countries’ response as been dispersed and unorganised unfortunately. The hardest hit countries have put out statements showing a willingness to negotiate with the US. Others, like Kenya being hit with lower tariffs, see an opportunity to expand their exports. For many though, it has been a deep silence: No common statement from the African Union or any African trading blocs.

  On the other hand the EU’s response has been coherent and clear. Moreover, China, Japan and South Korea (three unlikely allies) have been coordinating to have a strong response to the tariffs - this response is the opposite of US geopolitical strategy and shows that during hard times, countries can pull together to safeguard their interests. A unique African response would have strengthened its negotiating position.

• Geopolitics > Economics

  The quote that summarised this past few weeks has to be allocated to EY Ireland Chief Economist Loretta O’Sullivan who said “We are in the realm of geopolitics here, not just economics”.

  • The lack of economic rationale for those tariffs point towards other objectives: geopolitical.

  • 🇨🇳 China has made significant trade inroads in Africa over the past decade. The AGOA and Development Finance Corporation (DFC) - a US government corporation tasked with investment in African projects - are up to renewal later this year. The DFC, which has invested over $11 Billion in Africa, has invested heavily in the 🇦🇴 Angola Lobito Rail Corridor which is key to transporting key minerals out of 🇨🇩 DRC and Zambia 🇿🇲. The Export-Import Bank is also up to renewal in 2026. The hypothesis here is that tariffs are a negotiating tool to reduce Chinese influence on the continent while giving the US more access to the continent’s resources in exchange for trade and investment deals. Watch this space in coming months.

    China, aiming to position itself as the leader of the Global South, has labelled the tariffs as destroying the development potential of smaller countries. It has also implemented one of the strongest responses.

  • Coincidentally, this week Trump’s daughter’s father in law, Massad Boulos, has been named the administration’s Africa envoy. He was already the special envoy for Africa in the previous Trump Administration and has major business interests in Nigeria. His job is simple: strike deals for minerals in the DRC. This will have huge geopolitical impact on the region as well described in this article by Dan Ford. Any deal will complicate finding a solution to the DRC - Rwanda conflict.

  • 🇿🇦 The South African’s ICJ case against Israel also played a role in the high tariffs against the country. Trump has already pressured the country to withdraw its case to no avail. South Africa is also the largest AGOA exporter selling more than $2.5 Billion per year to the US market.

  

• Economic Impact

  While it is early days, the potential impact will vary on how long the tariffs are kept in place and whether they are kept at the same level. Below are some estimates of the potential impact at the current level and kept for a year.

• What Now?

  The wait and see game. Clearly Africa’s fate will more likely be decided by Wall Street rather than in African capitals. The days of singing “We are the World” are over. The dislocation between the USA and Africa goes beyond economics. Already during the Biden administration, the differences on the topic of individual rights became evident in countries like Uganda. With the new tariffs (as a negotiating tool, if it really is one), the US is trying to assert more of its interests at the detriment of African countries’ interests.

• The risk though, for the US, is that African countries will end up looking elsewhere and prioritise Africa First. When that happens, it will be harder for diplomacy to remedy the damage done.

• The tariffs will hurt African exports and African jobs. Clearly the African continent is not top of the Trump administration's priority - the White House has failed to appoint any Director for Africa. African countries will do well to continue building relationships elsewhere.

Housing

🗄️ Transparent Housing Market

Housing requirements

Africa faces a growing housing crisis driven by rapid urbanization, population growth, and inadequate infrastructure. With over 230 million people living in informal settlements and an annual housing deficit of 51 million units, millions lack access to affordable, safe homes.

🔢 🇰🇷 Public Database to bring transparency

South Korea's new initiative to launch a national database tracking vacant homes marks a significant step toward solving the country’s growing housing and urban decline challenges. By making data on abandoned or underused properties publicly accessible, the government aims to repurpose these spaces efficiently, revitalizing declining neighborhoods while easing housing shortages—without the need for costly new developments.

This move aligns with global research highlighting the importance of accurate, transparent data in addressing vacancy issues. Studies such as "The Empty House Next Door" and "Understanding and Managing Vacant Houses in Support of a Sustainable Community" emphasize that real-time data on property conditions, ownership, and location are essential for designing targeted housing policies. Without such insight, governments risk applying generic solutions to complex, locally-rooted problems.

In particular, a 2023 study titled "Analyzing the Factors of Vacant Home Occurrence for Urban Sustainability" focused on Asan City, South Korea, revealing that population aging, regional demographic shifts, and land-use patterns are key drivers of property vacancy. The research shows that policies must be rooted in local realities to be effective, supporting the logic behind South Korea’s planned platform.

 Local Solutions; not global solutions

Policies that involve local stakeholders—residents, nonprofits, and academic institutions—tend to produce better outcomes. Participatory mapping and localized property assessments improve data quality, foster trust, and ensure the resulting actions reflect community needs and priorities. Vacancy patterns and causes vary widely by region, requiring tailored approaches. While economic decline may drive vacancies in some cities, others face issues due to speculative real estate practices or demographic shifts. Understanding local dynamics allows for targeted policies that address root causes rather than just symptoms.

Number

🔢 This Week’s Number

 39.2%

Women in India own 39.2% of bank accounts, with rural areas showing higher ownership at 42.2%. Female participation in DEMAT accounts and proprietary establishments is rising, reflecting increased economic involvement.

News

📰 Policy News

• The ex-Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff has been re-elected as president of the New Development Bank - a BRICS Initiative to offer an alternative to the World Bank - for another 5 year term.

• 🇰🇪 A Kenyan court has ruled that a £2bn lawsuit against Meta, alleging the platform's failure to curb hate speech contributed to Ethiopian ethnic violence, can proceed. The petition is also asking Meta to:

  • change its algorithms and moderation practices to stop the spread of viral hate speech;

  • take steps to demote incitements to violence on its platforms and;

  • hire enough content moderators to avoid further damage in East and Southern Africa.

  The legal limits of social platforms is yet to be fully tested worldwide. While Meta is an American company, multiple lawsuits around the world is forcing it to adapt to local requirements. This case puts in evidence the unseen fractures of a global network that aims to harmonise its users behaviour for financial gains. Whether such case goes to its conclusion and whether the court’s ruling is implemented fully is one thing. The most interesting part is to see how Meta reacts to having to comply to multiple requirements; often contradictory of each other. Will it simply leave some markets or will it adapt on a case by case basis?

• On March 10, 2025, Sudan's military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, filed a case against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the International Court of Justice, accusing it of complicity in genocide by allegedly supplying arms to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF is accused of committing atrocities against the Masalit people in Darfur. The UAE has rejected these allegations, dismissing the case as a "cynical publicity stunt."

  This case follows that of South Africa’s against Israel. Whether the ICJ remains an accepted global institution will be key to the global south’s dealings with the western world.

• 🇮🇷 Iran's pension funds are in crisis, with millions of retirees struggling to receive payments. Despite 17 funds covering approximately 28 million subscribers, several, including the National Pension Fund and the Steel Workers Pension Fund, are effectively bankrupt, relying on state budget allocations to meet obligations. This financial insolvency has led to over 70 retiree protest rallies in the past year. Critics attribute the collapse to corruption, mismanagement, and military control over state-affiliated companies, such as Mobarakeh Steel, whose profits are allegedly diverted by regime-linked institutions.

• 🇳🇬 The Nigerian government has proposed the banning of solar panels in order to help the local industry grow. This import-substitution policy has its limits as the country faces a deficit in its electric supply.

📹️ Strong leadership

At times of crisis, leaders emerge. Singapore’s PM speech this week seeks to rally the nation in the wake of the US tariffs.